Moose population trends

Ontario’s moose population is in crisis. While their numbers overall are stable, in some areas, they are in steady and per­haps long-term decline. The Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) is aware and has taken increas­ingly drastic measures attempting to reverse the trend. These haven’t been popular with moose hunters. Changes to the way the MNR managed moose began in 2015, and culminated in the biggest change in 2021, when the point-based tag allocation system was introduced. It was accompanied by calf tag quo­tas, bull, cow/calf and calf tags, and an application fee, licence price adjustments, and the requirement to purchase tags with prices reflecting the demand for the various tag types. It is possibly the most unpopu­lar thing the MNR has ever done to hunters. There are signs of improving moose numbers in some areas, but those reversals have not been as widespread or effective as hoped. Ontario’s cur­rent moose population is considered stable at about 94,000 animals, and the MNR has recognized that more information is required to inform future moose management decisions. The Moose Research Project Over the next several years in northwestern Ontario, hundreds of moose and wolves will be darted, GPS-collared, and monitored. This effort is at the heart of an ambitious and cutting-edge MNR moose research project. Its objective is to provide the critical information needed to help researchers understand why moose populations have not recovered, despite severe restrictions on provincially licensed harvests. Phase One: Analyzing existing data Phase One began prior to 2020 and remains ongoing. Researchers are analyzing accumulated data from moose aerial surveys (MAI) and hunter reporting. That information has already provided data for a recent research paper that documented a stunning 20% decline in the province’s moose population between 2004 and 2018. The largest declines occurred across the more accessible parts of core moose range in northern Ontario. More recent ones have occurred in southern and central Ontario, within and adjacent to Algonquin Provincial Park. These declines are a result of many factors including habitat loss or change, parasites, hunting, climate, and predators. Adding to the complexity of the problem is the relative influence of each is thought to vary between areas and over time, as well as by moose population densities. In the paper previously mentioned, however, the researchers focused on and examined two primary factors that influence moose population growth — predation (by wolves and to a lesser extent